FootRadars Premier League

Premier League 2026-27 Title, Top Four and Relegation Odds

Last updated: 10/11/2026, 08:02 (JST)

Every remaining match is simulated 10,000 times with a model built from match results, giving each club's chances of finishing in each position. Updated after every round.

After matchday 10, Arsenal are the most likely champions (60%). Most at risk of relegation: Crystal Palace (69%), Coventry City (52%), Sunderland (43%).

Final position odds

ClubPts nowProjected ptsTitleTop 4Relegated
Arsenal2784
60%
▲7
97%
▲1
-
Brighton & Hove Albion2275
20%
▲5
85%
▲5
<1%
Manchester City2173
15%
▼13
80%
▼8
<1%
Liverpool1862
2%
▲1
36%
▲10
<1%
▼1
AFC Bournemouth1557
1%
19%
▲5
2%
▼1
Chelsea1656
1%
▼1
18%
▼8
2%
▲1
Brentford1456
<1%
▼1
17%
▼8
2%
▲1
Everton1653
<1%
10%
▲4
4%
▼3
Aston Villa1352
<1%
10%
6%
▲1
Leeds United1452
<1%
8%
▲2
4%
▼3
Manchester United849
<1%
5%
11%
▲2
Hull City1148
<1%
3%
11%
Newcastle United1246
<1%
2%
15%
▼1
Tottenham Hotspur1245
<1%
2%
▼1
16%
▲4
Nottingham Forest945
<1%
2%
▲1
16%
▼11
Fulham1044
<1%
1%
19%
▲2
Ipswich Town1143
<1%
2%
▼1
27%
▲6
Sunderland838
<1%
<1%
43%
▼10
Coventry City936
-
<1%
52%
▲3
Crystal Palace732
-
<1%
69%
▲9

▲▼ show the change in percentage points since matchday 9.

How the odds have moved

Each matchday is recalculated using only the results available at that point (no later results).

Title chances

  • Arsenal60%
    MD1: 41%MD2: 42%MD3: 43%MD4: 46%MD5: 27%MD6: 26%MD7: 27%MD8: 43%MD9: 53%MD10: 60%MD1MD10
  • Brighton & Hove Albion20%
    MD1: 5%MD2: 2%MD3: 2%MD4: 4%MD5: 8%MD6: 10%MD7: 17%MD8: 11%MD9: 15%MD10: 20%MD1MD10
  • Manchester City15%
    MD1: 33%MD2: 37%MD3: 41%MD4: 41%MD5: 53%MD6: 58%MD7: 52%MD8: 41%MD9: 28%MD10: 15%MD1MD10
  • Brentford<1%
    MD1: 3%MD2: 2%MD3: 2%MD4: 1%MD5: 2%MD6: 2%MD7: 1%MD8: 1%MD9: 1%MD10: <1%MD1MD10
  • Manchester United<1%
    MD1: 3%MD2: 4%MD3: 4%MD4: 2%MD5: 2%MD6: 1%MD7: 1%MD8: <1%MD9: <1%MD10: <1%MD1MD10
  • Hull City<1%
    MD1: 2%MD2: 4%MD3: 2%MD4: 1%MD5: <1%MD6: <1%MD7: <1%MD8: <1%MD9: <1%MD10: <1%MD1MD10

Top-four chances

  • Arsenal97%
    MD1: 85%MD2: 88%MD3: 91%MD4: 93%MD5: 84%MD6: 88%MD7: 90%MD8: 95%MD9: 96%MD10: 97%MD1MD10
  • Brighton & Hove Albion85%
    MD1: 33%MD2: 23%MD3: 22%MD4: 38%MD5: 54%MD6: 69%MD7: 82%MD8: 74%MD9: 80%MD10: 85%MD1MD10
  • Manchester City80%
    MD1: 80%MD2: 85%MD3: 88%MD4: 91%MD5: 92%MD6: 96%MD7: 96%MD8: 93%MD9: 89%MD10: 80%MD1MD10
  • Liverpool36%
    MD1: 23%MD2: 18%MD3: 26%MD4: 23%MD5: 29%MD6: 17%MD7: 22%MD8: 34%MD9: 27%MD10: 36%MD1MD10
  • AFC Bournemouth19%
    MD1: 15%MD2: 11%MD3: 12%MD4: 11%MD5: 7%MD6: 3%MD7: 5%MD8: 11%MD9: 14%MD10: 19%MD1MD10
  • Chelsea18%
    MD1: 16%MD2: 19%MD3: 18%MD4: 17%MD5: 10%MD6: 20%MD7: 28%MD8: 19%MD9: 26%MD10: 18%MD1MD10
  • Brentford17%
    MD1: 24%MD2: 22%MD3: 21%MD4: 19%MD5: 29%MD6: 27%MD7: 19%MD8: 19%MD9: 25%MD10: 17%MD1MD10
  • Everton10%
    MD1: 13%MD2: 11%MD3: 12%MD4: 10%MD5: 12%MD6: 13%MD7: 7%MD8: 5%MD9: 7%MD10: 10%MD1MD10

Relegation chances

  • Crystal Palace69%
    MD1: 36%MD2: 43%MD3: 27%MD4: 35%MD5: 31%MD6: 21%MD7: 34%MD8: 48%MD9: 60%MD10: 69%MD1MD10
  • Coventry City52%
    MD1: 93%MD2: 94%MD3: 95%MD4: >99%MD5: 96%MD6: 57%MD7: 68%MD8: 77%MD9: 50%MD10: 52%MD1MD10
  • Sunderland43%
    MD1: 22%MD2: 11%MD3: 11%MD4: 16%MD5: 20%MD6: 33%MD7: 39%MD8: 41%MD9: 54%MD10: 43%MD1MD10
  • Ipswich Town27%
    MD1: 18%MD2: 37%MD3: 53%MD4: 29%MD5: 34%MD6: 21%MD7: 21%MD8: 22%MD9: 21%MD10: 27%MD1MD10
  • Fulham19%
    MD1: 19%MD2: 18%MD3: 23%MD4: 25%MD5: 24%MD6: 33%MD7: 24%MD8: 17%MD9: 17%MD10: 19%MD1MD10
  • Nottingham Forest16%
    MD1: 9%MD2: 7%MD3: 8%MD4: 5%MD5: 8%MD6: 15%MD7: 19%MD8: 18%MD9: 27%MD10: 16%MD1MD10
  • Tottenham Hotspur16%
    MD1: 43%MD2: 47%MD3: 43%MD4: 44%MD5: 47%MD6: 51%MD7: 33%MD8: 21%MD9: 12%MD10: 16%MD1MD10
  • Newcastle United15%
    MD1: 9%MD2: 3%MD3: 4%MD4: 8%MD5: 4%MD6: 14%MD7: 17%MD8: 11%MD9: 15%MD10: 15%MD1MD10

Method: for each of the 280 remaining matches, attack and defence ratings come from Premier League results this season and the previous two (the same model as the match-page predictions). Scores are drawn at random, the final table is built, and this is repeated 10,000 times. Uncertainty in the ratings themselves is included by varying them in each simulation. Ties are split on points, goal difference and goals scored, then at random. Injuries, transfers and managerial changes are not modelled. "Top 4" is a guide to Champions League qualification; some seasons an extra place is available.

Validation: running the same calculation at each matchday of 2024-25 and 2025-26 and comparing with the final tables, the odds were consistently better than a no-information baseline, and much sharper from matchday 20 onward. Early-season odds still swing a lot.

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