Premier League Prediction Record 2026-27
Last updated: 10/11/2026, 08:02 (JST)
The model predictions shown on match pages and previews, checked against every completed match. Each prediction uses only results from before kick-off.
This season the most likely outcome has come true in 47 of 100 matches (47%).
Record by season
| Season | Matches | Accuracy | Brier score | Using past averages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 100 | 47% | 0.615 | 0.655 |
| 2025-26* | 380 | 47% | 0.623 | 0.657 |
| 2024-25* | 380 | 53% | 0.584 | 0.657 |
The Brier score measures the error of probability forecasts (0 is perfect; lower is better). "Using past averages" predicts the previous season's home-win, draw and away-win rates for every match (43%, 27% and 30% for this season's comparison); beating it means the predictions carry real information. With frequent draws and upsets, around 50% accuracy for the most likely outcome is typical in football.
* Past seasons are the same model re-run as of each match date (not the predictions shown on the site at the time).
Do the probabilities hold up?
How often the most likely outcome actually happened, grouped by the probability it was given (860 matches across this season and the previous two). The closer the two columns, the more the numbers themselves can be trusted.
| Probability of favourite outcome | Matches | Average forecast | Actual hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40% | 107 | 38% | 38% |
| 40%–50% | 337 | 45% | 41% |
| 50%–60% | 214 | 55% | 52% |
| 60%–70% | 137 | 64% | 66% |
| 70%+ | 65 | 77% | 71% |
Biggest upsets this season
Matches where the actual result had been given the lowest probability.
- Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry CityResult had 4% probability
- Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle UnitedResult had 12% probability
- Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham HotspurResult had 19% probability
- Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham HotspurResult had 20% probability
- Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester CityResult had 21% probability
Every match this season
Matchday 10 ・ 6/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United - Aston Villa | 49 / 23 / 28 | 4-4Miss |
| Brighton & Hove Albion - Brentford | 56 / 23 / 21 | 2-0Hit |
| Crystal Palace - Liverpool | 26 / 24 / 50 | 1-3Hit |
| Sunderland - Chelsea | 30 / 24 / 46 | 1-0Miss |
| Ipswich Town - AFC Bournemouth | 36 / 22 / 42 | 1-2Hit |
| Nottingham Forest - Manchester City | 21 / 24 / 55 | 3-1Miss |
| Fulham - Newcastle United | 45 / 26 / 29 | 1-1Miss |
| Arsenal - Hull City | 67 / 22 / 11 | 1-0Hit |
| Leeds United - Tottenham Hotspur | 45 / 28 / 27 | 1-0Hit |
| Everton - Coventry City | 56 / 24 / 20 | 3-1Hit |
Matchday 9 ・ 5/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United - Everton | 44 / 26 / 30 | 0-1Miss |
| Liverpool - Arsenal | 25 / 27 / 48 | 0-1Hit |
| Aston Villa - Fulham | 47 / 26 / 27 | 1-1Miss |
| Tottenham Hotspur - Crystal Palace | 50 / 25 / 25 | 2-0Hit |
| Brentford - Nottingham Forest | 50 / 25 / 25 | 2-0Hit |
| Coventry City - Sunderland | 31 / 29 / 40 | 3-1Miss |
| Hull City - Ipswich Town | 49 / 25 / 26 | 2-2Miss |
| AFC Bournemouth - Leeds United | 43 / 26 / 31 | 2-0Hit |
| Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion | 51 / 23 / 26 | 0-1Miss |
| Chelsea - Manchester United | 42 / 23 / 35 | 2-0Hit |
Matchday 8 ・ 3/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland - Leeds United | 30 / 28 / 42 | 0-0Miss |
| Crystal Palace - Newcastle United | 38 / 24 / 38 | 0-2Hit |
| Liverpool - Brighton & Hove Albion | 29 / 24 / 47 | 2-0Miss |
| Manchester United - AFC Bournemouth | 55 / 22 / 23 | 0-3Miss |
| Hull City - Brentford | 35 / 28 / 37 | 1-1Miss |
| Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur | 59 / 21 / 20 | 0-2Miss |
| Arsenal - Everton | 63 / 23 / 14 | 2-0Hit |
| Coventry City - Fulham | 28 / 27 / 45 | 0-1Hit |
| Aston Villa - Manchester City | 21 / 22 / 57 | 2-1Miss |
| Ipswich Town - Nottingham Forest | 39 / 24 / 37 | 1-1Miss |
Matchday 7 ・ 6/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur - Coventry City | 49 / 26 / 25 | 3-1Hit |
| Nottingham Forest - Arsenal | 22 / 27 / 51 | 0-1Hit |
| Leeds United - Manchester United | 38 / 25 / 37 | 1-1Miss |
| AFC Bournemouth - Sunderland | 50 / 24 / 26 | 2-0Hit |
| Brighton & Hove Albion - Crystal Palace | 67 / 19 / 14 | 5-0Hit |
| Newcastle United - Aston Villa | 43 / 24 / 33 | 0-1Miss |
| Fulham - Hull City | 36 / 28 / 36 | 1-0Hit |
| Brentford - Liverpool | 48 / 24 / 28 | 1-2Miss |
| Manchester City - Ipswich Town | 81 / 12 / 7 | 3-2Hit |
| Everton - Chelsea | 45 / 24 / 31 | 0-2Miss |
Matchday 6 ・ 4/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry City - Newcastle United | 12 / 22 / 66 | 4-1Miss |
| Liverpool - Manchester City | 28 / 24 / 48 | 0-3Hit |
| Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest | 32 / 27 / 41 | 3-1Miss |
| Hull City - Everton | 40 / 30 / 30 | 2-2Miss |
| Manchester United - Tottenham Hotspur | 66 / 19 / 15 | 1-1Miss |
| Chelsea - AFC Bournemouth | 42 / 23 / 35 | 5-1Hit |
| Aston Villa - Brentford | 35 / 25 / 40 | 2-2Miss |
| Sunderland - Brighton & Hove Albion | 24 / 24 / 52 | 0-2Hit |
| Ipswich Town - Fulham | 36 / 25 / 39 | 2-1Miss |
| Arsenal - Leeds United | 60 / 24 / 16 | 2-1Hit |
Matchday 5 ・ 4/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham - Manchester United | 31 / 25 / 44 | 1-1Miss |
| AFC Bournemouth - Liverpool | 41 / 24 / 35 | 0-1Miss |
| Manchester City - Sunderland | 71 / 19 / 10 | 5-3Hit |
| Leeds United - Crystal Palace | 58 / 22 / 20 | 0-0Miss |
| Nottingham Forest - Coventry City | 82 / 14 / 4 | 0-1Miss |
| Newcastle United - Hull City | 35 / 28 / 37 | 2-1Miss |
| Everton - Ipswich Town | 58 / 21 / 21 | 1-0Hit |
| Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal | 26 / 26 / 48 | 3-0Miss |
| Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa | 31 / 28 / 41 | 2-3Hit |
| Brentford - Chelsea | 49 / 23 / 28 | 3-0Hit |
Matchday 4 ・ 4/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United - Newcastle United | 40 / 26 / 34 | 4-1Hit |
| Manchester United - Manchester City | 28 / 23 / 49 | 0-1Hit |
| Coventry City - Brighton & Hove Albion | 11 / 22 / 67 | 0-5Hit |
| Sunderland - Arsenal | 17 / 26 / 57 | 0-2Hit |
| Tottenham Hotspur - Everton | 30 / 27 / 43 | 0-0Miss |
| AFC Bournemouth - Brentford | 42 / 25 / 33 | 2-2Miss |
| Chelsea - Hull City | 33 / 31 / 36 | 2-2Miss |
| Liverpool - Fulham | 58 / 21 / 21 | 0-0Miss |
| Crystal Palace - Ipswich Town | 53 / 22 / 25 | 2-3Miss |
| Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest | 42 / 27 / 31 | 1-2Miss |
Matchday 3 ・ 3/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal - Chelsea | 69 / 19 / 12 | 2-1Hit |
| Everton - Manchester United | 35 / 25 / 40 | 2-2Miss |
| Hull City - Aston Villa | 52 / 26 / 22 | 0-0Miss |
| Brentford - Sunderland | 52 / 25 / 23 | 1-1Miss |
| Manchester City - Coventry City | 89 / 9 / 2 | 1-0Hit |
| Fulham - Crystal Palace | 51 / 26 / 23 | 2-3Miss |
| Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur | 59 / 23 / 18 | 0-0Miss |
| Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United | 51 / 24 / 25 | 1-1Miss |
| Newcastle United - AFC Bournemouth | 45 / 25 / 30 | 2-2Miss |
| Ipswich Town - Liverpool | 29 / 20 / 51 | 0-2Hit |
Matchday 2 ・ 7/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa - Arsenal | 21 / 24 / 55 | 0-1Hit |
| Manchester United - Ipswich Town | 60 / 20 / 20 | 5-2Hit |
| Leeds United - Brentford | 39 / 26 / 35 | 1-1Miss |
| Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 / 25 / 37 | 4-3Hit |
| Sunderland - Fulham | 41 / 27 / 32 | 1-0Hit |
| Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United | 32 / 25 / 43 | 0-2Hit |
| Coventry City - Hull City | 15 / 22 / 63 | 0-1Hit |
| AFC Bournemouth - Everton | 46 / 26 / 28 | 1-1Miss |
| Liverpool - Nottingham Forest | 49 / 24 / 27 | 2-2Miss |
| Crystal Palace - Manchester City | 17 / 23 / 60 | 1-4Hit |
Matchday 1 ・ 5/10 Hit
| Match | Forecast (home/draw/away) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham - Chelsea | 42 / 26 / 32 | 2-3Miss |
| Newcastle United - Liverpool | 43 / 23 / 34 | 2-2Miss |
| Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa | 44 / 25 / 31 | 4-0Hit |
| Manchester City - AFC Bournemouth | 65 / 20 / 15 | 2-1Hit |
| Brentford - Tottenham Hotspur | 57 / 22 / 21 | 3-0Hit |
| Ipswich Town - Sunderland | 36 / 26 / 38 | 2-1Miss |
| Nottingham Forest - Leeds United | 49 / 25 / 26 | 0-1Miss |
| Everton - Crystal Palace | 50 / 26 / 24 | 2-0Hit |
| Hull City - Manchester United | 22 / 22 / 56 | 2-0Miss |
| Arsenal - Coventry City | 78 / 15 / 7 | 3-0Hit |
Figures are Home / Draw / Away probabilities (%); bold is the favoured outcome.
For how the predictions are calculated, see the note under the win probabilities on any match page.